| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Ball State | 56-3 | 1912.0 | -8.5 | 1903.4 | 99.6% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Texas | 23-24 | 1903.4 | -7.4 | 1896.0 | 55.6% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Kent State | 59-3 | 1896.0 | +6.3 | 1902.3 | 99.5% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Illinois | 42-19 | 1902.3 | +13.6 | 1915.9 | 88.3% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Iowa | 31-14 | 1915.9 | +21.4 | 1937.3 | 75.4% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Maryland | 45-16 | 1937.3 | -10.4 | 1926.9 | 95.9% |